Charts updated around the middle of the month following the end of each quarter.
| €/$ |
Brent ($/b)
|
Average liquids price*(1) ($/b) |
Average gas price* (1)
($/Mbtu)
|
Average LNG price** (1) ($/Mbtu) |
Variable Cost Margin, European refining *** ($/t) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2023 | ||||||
| Third quarter 2023 | ||||||
| Second quarter 2023 | 1.09 | 78.1 | 72.0 | 5.98 | 9.84 | 42.7 |
| First quarter 2023 | 1.07 | 81.2 | 73.4 | 8.89 | 13.27 | 87.8 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
(1) Does not take include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the second quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected at nearly 2.5 Mboe/d this quarter, down about 50 kboe/d compared to the previous quarter mainly due to planned maintenance in the North Sea. Exploration & Production results are expected to be in line with the evolution of the environment.
- Despite the expected significant impact of a less favorable environment on results from the Integrated LNG segment, illustrated by an average LNG price near 10 $/Mbtu, cash flow should remain high thanks to high margins captured in 2022 for 2023 deliveries.
- Integrated Power results are expected to be above $400 million, higher than previous quarter.
- Downstream results are expected to be in line with the decrease in refining margins.
- A working capital release is expected, which should provide a tailwind to cash flow.
Main elements impacting the first quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to exceed 2.5 Mboe/d this quarter, up by close to 50 kboe/d compared to the previous quarter*, benefiting in particular from the start-up of gas production on Block 10 in Oman and the acquisition of an interest in the SARB / Umm Lulu oil concession in the United Arab Emirates.
- Besides the effect of the deconsolidation of Novatek as of January 1, 2023, the results of the Integrated LNG segment, while remaining very significant, will be impacted by the lower demand for LNG in Europe due to the mild winter weather and high inventory levels.
- Refining & Chemicals results are expected to be higher given the sustained refining margins during the quarter.
* Restated for production related to TotalEnergies’ stake in Novatek.
Sensitivities 2023*
| Variation | Impact estimé sur le résultat opérationnel net ajusté | Impact estimé sur la marge brute d'autofinancement | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ par € | -/+ 0.1 G$ | ~0 G$ |
| Average liquids price ** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.5 G$ | +/- 3.0 G$ |
| European gas price - NBP / TTF | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.4G$ | +/- 0.4 G$ |
| Variable Cost Margin, European refining (MCV) | +/- 10 $/t | +/- 0.4 G$ | +/- 0.5 G$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2023. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities.
The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 80 $/b Brent environment.
***
Disclaimer
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the first quarter 2023 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e., special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in fair value) -adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
| €/$ |
Brent ($/b)
|
Average liquids price*(1) ($/b) |
Average gas price* (1)
($/Mbtu)
|
Average LNG price** (1) ($/Mbtu) |
Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** ($/t) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2022 | 1.02 | 88.8 | 80.6 | 12.74 | 14.83 | 73.6 |
| Third quarter 2022 | 1.01 | 100.8 | 93.6 | 16.83 | 21.51 | 99.2 |
| Second quarter 2022 | 1.06 | 113.9 | 102.9 | 11.01 | 13.96 | 145.7 |
| First quarter 2022 | 1.12 | 102.2 | 90.1 | 12.27 | 13.60 | 46.3 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
(1) Does not take include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the fourth quarter aggregates
- Cash flow from LNG business and gas trading activities is expected to be higher than previous quarter, despite lower gas prices, benefiting from our integrated portfolio.
- Hydrocarbon production is expected to exceed 2.8 Mboe/d this quarter, up 5% over the quarter, benefiting from project ramp-ups (Mero 1, Ikike) and the restart of Kashagan production.
- Downstream results are expected to remain strong, without replicating the performances reached over the two previous quarters, which benefited from a highly favorable environment.
- In line with the applicable accounting standards, the UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) will be reported in the fourth quarter adjusted results for 0.4 B$, excluding a 0.3 B$ negative deferred tax impact accounted as special item. The EPL impact in the 2022 adjusted results is therefore expected to be 1 B$.
- The EU solidarity contribution for 2022, including the electricity production infra-marginal income contribution for 2022, will be reported in the fourth quarter as part of special items for a total of 1.1 B$.The impairment related to the decision to no longer equity account for the 19.4% stake in Novatek starting December 31, 2022 is estimated to be around 4 B$ after taking into account the ruble evolution.
- Share buybacks amounted to 2 B$ in the fourth quarter 2022 and should continue over the first quarter 2023 at the same pace.
Main factors impacting the adjusted results of the third quarter
- LNG assets performance is expected to increase strongly as a result of higher average LNG price, up 50%.
- Performance of the gas, LNG and power trading activities is expected to remain high, our integrated portfolio enabling to capture opportunities in a volatile and dislocated environment.
- Upstream production is expected to be 70 kboe/d lower than in Q2, mainly due to unplanned outages in Kashagan.
- Refining & Chemicals results are expected to remain high thanks to strong distillate margins, albeit lower than the previous quarter due to the decrease in gasoline margins in Europe and in the US.
Main factors impacting the adjusted results of the second quarter
- Upstream production is expected to be 0.1 Mboe/d lower than in the first quarter, mainly due to disruptions in Nigeria and Libya for security reasons, as well as a higher volume of planned maintenance
- Refining & Chemicals results are expected to be exceptional given the very high levels of distillate and gasoline cracks, as well as the contribution of the crude oil and petroleum products trading activities, expected to replicate the outperformance of the first quarter of 2022
- Performance of the gas, LNG and power trading activities is expected to remain high, but without replicating the exceptional contribution of the first quarter of 2022
Main factors impacting the adjusted results of the first quarter
- Average gas price and average LNG price do not take into account gas and LNG trading activities, which results are expected to be high and comparable to the fourth quarter 2021, capturing optimization opportunities generated by the large LNG trading portfolio in the prevailing high gas spot price environment.
- The European refining Variable Cost Margin increased significantly, notably due to sharply higher distillate cracks, but continues to be affected by high energy costs.
2022 Sensitivities*
| Change | Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income | Estimated impact on cash flow from operations | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ per € | -/+ 0.1 B$ | ~0 B$ |
| Average liquids price** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.7 B$ | +/- 3.2 G$ |
| European gas price - NBP / TTF*** | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.5 B$ | +/- 0.5 G$ |
| Variable cost margin, European refining (VCM) | +/- 10 $/t | +/- 0.4 B$ | +/- 0.5 G$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2022. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
Sensitivity to European gas price has been exceptionally updated during third quarter (see ***).
** In a 60 $/b Brent environment.
*** Sensitivity including UK Energy Profits Levy.
Sensitivity +/- 0.4 B$ starting 3Q 2022, related to UK and Norway taxes
***
Disclaimer
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the fourth quarter 2022 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e., special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in fair value) -adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
| €/$ |
Brent ($/b)
|
Average liquids price* ($/b) |
Average gas price*(1)
($/Mbtu)
|
Average LNG price**(1) ($/Mbtu) |
Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** ($/t) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourth quarter 2021 | 1.14 | 79.8 | 72.6 | 11.38 | 13.12 | 16.7 |
| Third Quarter 2021 | 1.18 | 73.5 | 67.1 | 6.33 | 9.10 | 8.8 |
| Second quarter 2021 | 1.21 | 69.0 | 62.9 | 4.43 | 6.59 | 10.2 |
| First quarter 2021 | 1.20 | 61.1 | 56.4 | 4.06 | 6.08 | 5.3 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates (excluding stock value variation).
**Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates (excluding stock value variation). .
(1)Does not take into account gas and LNG trading activities, which results are expected to be significantly higher compared to the third quarter 2021, capturing optimization opportunities generated by large LNG trading portfolio in the prevailing high gas spot price environment.
***This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons). Data restated in 2Q21 environment for energy costs were 35.7 $/t in 4Q21 and 20.5 $/t in 3Q21.
Disclaimer: Data is based on TotalEnergies’ reporting and is not audited. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of the main indicators.
